Unprecedented climate extremes in South Africa and implications for maize production

Abstract Maize is the most important crop grown in South Africa, but yields can be severely reduced by extreme high summer average temperatures and low precipitation, potentially adversely affecting both domestic consumption regional food security exports. To help understand manage climate risks to Southern Africa it essential quantify present-day likelihood magnitude of extremes Africa’s maize-growing region explore potential for unprecedented conditions which would likely result record maize yields. We analyse a large ensemble initialised model simulations, provides almost 100 times as many plausible summers equivalent observational dataset. risk production examine role El Niño-Southern Oscillation. find that African at experiencing record-breaking hot, cold, dry or wet events under current climatic conditions. annual chance approximately 4%, increasing 62% during very strong Niño years. also exceeding present day seasonal temperature has increased across 1979–2018 period, being five more now than was 1980. These could number days above optimum, even maximum, production, lead severe floods droughts. Under change scenarios, frequency projected increase meaning studied here become commonplace future. This suggests significant investment needed develop adaptations climate-related systems build resilience impacts change.